Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3002 at 09:24 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3002 MDW 09:24 → TPA 13:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 867 MDW 16:24 → TPA 20:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3002 Southwest	MDW 09:24	TPA 13:10	8%	2%	1.4%	no record
WN 1844 Southwest	MDW 00:07	TPA 03:37	11%	1%	4.6%	no record
WN 1346 Southwest	MDW 11:54	TPA 15:40	14%	2%	1.4%	no record
WN 867 Southwest	MDW 16:24	TPA 20:10	20%	4%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON