Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1666 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1666 MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1681 MEM 18:13 → ATL 20:39 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1666 Delta Flight history →	MEM 05:15	ATL 07:34	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 1733 Delta	MEM 09:16	ATL 11:42	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 1149 Delta Flight history →	MEM 10:26	ATL 12:47	9%	3%	1.6%	88%
DL 1624 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:20	ATL 08:44	9%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	MEM 13:20	ATL 15:43	11%	4%	1.8%	85%
DL 82 Delta Flight history →	MEM 11:42	ATL 14:08	11%	4%	1.3%	90%
DL 733 Delta	MEM 15:07	ATL 17:30	17%	6%	1.3%	no record
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	MEM 15:54	ATL 18:19	17%	6%	1.3%	80%
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	MEM 18:13	ATL 20:39	19%	7%	1.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON