tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 10m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:26 → ATL 12:47DL 1149 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 5h 24m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 2h 17m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 16m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491 7h 08m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 6h 02m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 12:18 → AUS 14:08AA 1052 7h 24m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MEM 15:54 → ATL 18:19DL 1700 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:47 → AUS 23:14DL 1081 7h 20m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:43 → DFW 07:33AA 1940 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:46 → AUS 09:54AA 794 4h 11m 93% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON