Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3012 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3012 Southwest	MEM 08:00	BNA 09:18	5%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 2750 Southwest	MEM 15:40	BNA 16:58	16%	5%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	4h 54m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	5h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 31m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:26 → ATL 12:47DL 1149	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → BNA 15:36DL 3142	5h 10m	98%	81%
American Details →	MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 12:12 → BNA 12:39AA 2409	5h 55m	98%	80%
American Details →	MEM 08:14 → CLT 11:02AA 1846	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 13:10 → BNA 13:39AA 538	5h 25m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:20 → ATL 15:43DL 2778	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:20 → BNA 19:38DL 1490	6h 18m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MEM 15:54 → ATL 18:19DL 1700	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → BNA 20:34DL 3002	4h 40m	95%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON