Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5604 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 07:17	BOS 11:32	9%	3%	0.9%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BOS 12:41DL 855	6h 26m	98%	85%
American Details →	MEM 15:33 → DCA 19:07AA 4497 · flown by Republic	1h 42m Washington	DCA 20:49 → BOS 22:39AA 4668 · flown by Republic	6h 06m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	6h 51m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 27m	97%	83%
American Details →	MEM 06:16 → PHL 10:01AA 5409 · flown by PSA	2h 53m Philadelphia	PHL 12:54 → BOS 14:33AA 3186	7h 17m	100%	82%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	2h 32m Newark	EWR 12:15 → BOS 13:32UA 1669	6h 32m	98%	79%
American Details →	MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 12:28 → BOS 14:57AA 1140	7h 13m	98%	79%
American Details →	MEM 07:00 → LGA 10:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic	3h 20m New York	LGA 14:08 → BOS 15:44AA 4430 · flown by Republic	7h 44m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	5h 39m	72%	54%
American Details →	MEM 17:33 → ORD 19:42AA 4651 · flown by Republic	47m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682	5h 32m	64%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON