tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Minneapolis MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357 7h 03m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 6h 52m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:36 → ORD 08:45AA 3758 · flown by Envoy 1h 09m Chicago ORD 09:54 → BWI 12:59AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 5h 23m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:55 → IAH 08:59UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 3h 01m Houston IAH 12:00 → BWI 16:14UA 1720 8h 19m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 7h 03m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 48m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 4h 15m 89% 80%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 12:33 → BWI 14:06AA 2733 6h 22m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 21m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 5h 32m 92% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON