Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 978 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 978 MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1636 MEM 15:17 → CLT 18:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 978 American Flight history →	MEM 06:44	CLT 09:36	12%	4%	1.1%	90%
AA 1846 American Flight history →	MEM 08:14	CLT 11:02	14%	5%	1.8%	88%
OH 5398 PSA	MEM 17:52	CLT 20:55	18%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 1790 American Flight history →	MEM 12:56	CLT 15:42	24%	6%	2.4%	95%worse than usual
AA 1636 American	MEM 15:17	CLT 18:04	28%	8%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON