Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1940 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1940 MEM 05:43 → DFW 07:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1929 MEM 17:40 → DFW 19:29 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1940 American Flight history →	MEM 05:43	DFW 07:33	10%	5%	1.7%	89%
MQ 3346 Envoy	MEM 07:05	DFW 08:52	13%	4%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3528 Envoy	MEM 09:35	DFW 11:12	14%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 1825 American Flight history →	MEM 07:13	DFW 09:14	14%	5%	2.1%	85%
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 14:52	DFW 16:26	20%	7%	3.3%	75%
AA 1086 American Flight history →	MEM 11:57	DFW 13:39	23%	10%	1.6%	71%
AA 1929 American	MEM 17:40	DFW 19:29	32%	14%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON