Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2370 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:32	DTW 09:27	8%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 1627 Delta	MEM 12:06	DTW 15:03	12%	4%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 08:49 → LGA 12:49DL 5607 · flown by Republic	2h 17m New York	LGA 15:06 → DTW 16:56DL 308	7h 07m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:54 → DTW 18:38DL 8906	5h 29m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → DTW 11:40DL 8861	5h 25m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	6h 32m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 36m	96%	82%
American Details →	MEM 15:33 → DCA 19:07AA 4497 · flown by Republic	1h 07m Washington	DCA 20:14 → DTW 22:06AA 4616 · flown by Republic	5h 33m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	46m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	4h 42m	87%	80%
American Details →	MEM 07:00 → LGA 10:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic	57m New York	LGA 11:45 → DTW 13:49AA 4339 · flown by Republic	5h 49m	91%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON