tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 3642 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 3642 United flown by Republic Flight history → MEM 06:00 EWR 09:43 6% 2% 2.2% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 06m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 48m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 24m 89% 78%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 56m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 8h 14m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 21m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 5h 52m 92% 73%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697 5h 01m 90% 72%
UnitedDetails → MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 8h 17m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → MEM 15:54 → ATL 18:19DL 1700 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527 6h 52m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 5h 18m 67% 50%
UnitedDetails → MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest 52m Chicago ORD 17:21 → EWR 20:39UA 1630 5h 17m 60% 39%
AmericanDetails → MEM 12:56 → CLT 15:42AA 1790 54m Charlotte CLT 16:36 → EWR 18:41AA 1330 4h 45m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON