Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1776 at 05:55, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1776 Southwest	MEM 05:55	HOU 07:47	4%	2%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	56m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509	4h 19m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:26 → ATL 12:47DL 1149	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 56m	98%	77%
American Details →	MEM 05:43 → DFW 07:33AA 1940	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	4h 48m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	MEM 15:54 → ATL 18:19DL 1700	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 57m	96%	73%
American Details →	MEM 14:52 → DFW 16:26AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 06m	93%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON