Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3540 at 07:32, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3540 Southwest	MEM 07:32	LAS 09:03	10%	2%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 26m	98%	85%
United Details →	MEM 06:55 → IAH 08:59UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	2h 56m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 18m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 45m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 56m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466	7h 45m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	2h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659	6h 46m	95%	74%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	2h 42m Newark	EWR 12:25 → LAS 14:53UA 1864	10h 53m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → LAS 17:05DL 711	7h 23m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON