tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 9h 23m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 52m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05DL 2122 9h 56m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 3h 23m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 10h 03m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:16 → PHL 10:01AA 5409 · flown by PSA 3h 13m Philadelphia PHL 13:14 → LAX 15:57AA 2944 11h 41m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MEM 13:20 → ATL 15:43DL 2778 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:21DL 996 9h 01m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → MEM 10:32 → DCA 14:06AA 4444 · flown by Republic 3h 55m Washington DCA 18:01 → LAX 20:41AA 3283 12h 09m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:55 → IAH 08:59UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 3h 34m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 11m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON