tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3019 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3019 Southwest MEM 06:35 MCO 09:46 6% 2% 5.8% no record
WN 1627 Southwest MEM 16:22 MCO 19:30 19% 6% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 40m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 56m Detroit DTW 12:23 → MCO 15:03DL 1123 7h 31m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Houston IAH 19:29 → MCO 23:05UA 3883 6h 42m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 45m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:16 → PHL 10:01AA 5409 · flown by PSA 1h 08m Philadelphia PHL 11:09 → MCO 13:55AA 3268 6h 39m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 5h 05m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 30m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 6h 38m 94% 73%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → MCO 14:12AA 2117 6h 28m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON