tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3020 Southwest MEM 05:38 MDW 07:18 5% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 983 Southwest MEM 13:30 MDW 15:20 14% 3% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417 5h 27m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:26 → ATL 12:47DL 1149 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728 5h 04m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MEM 15:54 → ATL 18:19DL 1700 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 21m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 7h 09m 98% 57%
DeltaDetails → MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 6h 08m 97% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON