tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1340 at 05:34, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1340 American Flight history → MEM 05:34 MIA 09:03 14% 5% 1.8% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 4h 48m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 47m Minneapolis MSP 09:01 → MIA 13:40DL 793 6h 40m 88% 75%
AmericanDetails → MEM 15:33 → DCA 19:07AA 4497 · flown by Republic 1h 57m Washington DCA 21:04 → MIA 23:48AA 2214 7h 15m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:55 → IAH 08:59UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 3h 01m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 52m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 5h 47m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:16 → PHL 10:01AA 5409 · flown by PSA 1h 31m Philadelphia PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:29AA 1989 7h 13m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 6h 17m 93% 66%
AmericanDetails → MEM 07:00 → LGA 10:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic 2h 24m New York LGA 13:12 → MIA 16:15AA 605 8h 15m 97% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 11:57 → DFW 13:39AA 1086 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167 5h 27m 68% 35%
AmericanDetails → MEM 12:56 → CLT 15:42AA 1790 56m Charlotte CLT 16:38 → MIA 18:46AA 3011 4h 50m 62% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON