Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3899 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 06:00	MSP 08:14	7%	4%	0.8%	90%
DL 3989 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 12:09	MSP 14:22	9%	4%	1.1%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 16m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:49 → LGA 12:49DL 5607 · flown by Republic	2h 11m New York	LGA 15:00 → MSP 17:26DL 2349	8h 37m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	7h 25m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 33m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697	6h 39m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:26 → ATL 12:47DL 1149	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	5h 41m	97%	82%
American Details →	MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 12:37 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	7h 39m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MEM 15:54 → ATL 18:19DL 1700	47m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	4h 52m	74%	60%
American Details →	MEM 11:57 → DFW 13:39AA 1086	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:31 → MSP 17:07AA 2406	5h 10m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON