Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5409 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 06:16	PHL 10:01	8%	4%	1.9%	98%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 12:51	PHL 16:33	16%	5%	2.1%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:17 → BOS 11:32DL 5604 · flown by Republic	2h 58m Boston	BOS 14:30 → PHL 16:12DL 5706 · flown by Republic	7h 55m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279	6h 00m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	6h 55m	99%	84%
American Details →	MEM 10:32 → DCA 14:06AA 4444 · flown by Republic	3h 33m Washington	DCA 17:39 → PHL 18:55AA 5248 · flown by PSA	7h 23m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329	7h 09m	100%	78%
American Details →	MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	7h 06m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:20 → ATL 15:43DL 2778	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → PHL 21:42DL 1174	7h 22m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 11:57 → DFW 13:39AA 1086	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:25 → PHL 19:00AA 2213	6h 03m	69%	45%
American Details →	MEM 10:36 → ORD 12:29AA 3959 · flown by Envoy	48m Chicago	ORD 13:17 → PHL 16:42AA 830	5h 06m	8%	6%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON