Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 14:52, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3359 Envoy	MEM 07:53	PHX 09:30	11%	3%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	8h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	9h 18m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	9h 01m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431	6h 46m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836	7h 57m	99%	80%
American Details →	MEM 06:44 → CLT 09:36AA 978	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	8h 12m	95%	78%
United Details →	MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Houston	IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078	7h 19m	97%	77%
American Details →	MEM 05:43 → DFW 07:33AA 1940	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905	7h 20m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247	48m Chicago	ORD 10:18 → PHX 12:09UA 2225	6h 44m	67%	54%
American Details →	MEM 11:57 → DFW 13:39AA 1086	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	5h 00m	70%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON