Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2290 at 07:15, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2290 Delta Flight history →	MEM 07:15	SLC 09:33	8%	3%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	8h 57m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 55m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 30m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	8h 39m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:42 → ATL 14:08DL 82	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	9h 14m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:26 → ATL 12:47DL 1149	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	7h 52m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:20 → ATL 15:43DL 2778	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	9h 17m	98%	73%
American Details →	MEM 12:51 → PHL 16:33AA 5040 · flown by PSA	3h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 19:42 → SLC 22:57AA 2630	11h 06m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 09:54 → ORD 11:56UA 5672 · flown by SkyWest	49m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	6h 28m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON