Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2185 United Flight history →	MFR 05:00	DEN 08:33	9%	6%	0.7%	92%
UA 1412 United Flight history →	MFR 13:10	DEN 16:43	16%	7%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:04 → SLC 07:59DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	5h 43m	97%	86%
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 58m San Francisco	SFO 19:33 → DEN 23:02UA 2117	7h 51m	99%	84%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	53m Phoenix	PHX 08:35 → DEN 11:33AA 2602	5h 18m	83%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	57m San Francisco	SFO 16:32 → DEN 20:09UA 1835	4h 58m	61%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON