tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3126 at 08:25, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3126 SkyWest MFR 08:25 LAX 10:29 19% 7% 0.7% no record
AS 2329 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record MFR 16:34 LAX 18:35 21% 10% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 1h 06m Portland PDX 07:20 → LAX 09:57AS 581 4h 42m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:04 → SLC 07:59DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 23m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 29m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Phoenix PHX 10:48 → LAX 12:21AA 2027 7h 06m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 2h 56m San Francisco SFO 18:31 → LAX 19:53UA 1799 5h 42m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:35 → LAX 20:57UA 1460 7h 47m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 3h 03m Seattle SEA 10:23 → LAX 12:58AS 1672 7h 00m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 4h 17m 72% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON