Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3305 MFR 05:24 → PDX 06:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3034 MFR 12:54 → PDX 14:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3305 SkyWest	MFR 05:24	PDX 06:41	9%	5%	1.4%	no record
OO 3434 SkyWest	MFR 15:04	PDX 16:21	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 3034 SkyWest	MFR 12:54	PDX 14:11	16%	7%	1.1%	no record
AS 2098 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 05:15	PDX 06:14	3%	1%	3.6%	97%
AS 2081 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 15:52	PDX 16:50	12%	4%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON