Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6401 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	PHX 07:42	11%	7%	0.9%	94%
OO 6240 SkyWest	MFR 13:27	PHX 16:10	17%	9%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:04 → SLC 07:59DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431	6h 57m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon	2h 49m Portland	PDX 09:03 → PHX 11:39AS 1350	6h 24m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → PHX 14:59DL 2449	8h 44m	99%	81%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	2h 52m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	7h 25m	97%	81%
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 18:54 → PHX 20:51UA 1375	6h 40m	99%	74%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	2h 23m Denver	DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507	6h 51m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 09:35 → PHX 12:19AS 449	6h 21m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON