tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:04, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:04 → SLC 07:59DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 04m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 6h 24m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 2h 48m Portland PDX 09:02 → SAN 11:32AS 721 6h 17m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:11AA 2122 6h 56m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 2h 37m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 36m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 11m San Francisco SFO 18:46 → SAN 20:22UA 1577 6h 11m 99% 69%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 3h 01m Seattle SEA 10:21 → SAN 13:03AS 650 7h 05m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → SAN 18:39UA 1561 4h 28m 75% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON