Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1050 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1050 United	MFR 05:56	SFO 07:33	8%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1754 United Flight history →	MFR 14:11	SFO 15:35	37%	17%	0.7%	47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:04 → SLC 07:59DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	7h 03m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon	2h 45m Portland	PDX 19:35 → SFO 21:24AS 697	5h 32m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412	5h 49m	98%	76%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	93%	65%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	1h 11m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 30m	89%	61%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	5h 11m	99%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON