Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5160 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 06:00	DCA 07:50	7%	3%	1.2%	85%
AA 5150 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 11:59	DCA 14:04	13%	7%	1.4%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MHT 10:32 → PHL 12:09AA 5976 · flown by Piedmont	3h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 15:46 → DCA 17:02AA 5363 · flown by PSA	6h 30m	100%	83%
American Details →	MHT 07:04 → ORD 09:00AA 4150 · flown by Envoy	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → DCA 13:48AA 1200	6h 44m	97%	81%
American Details →	MHT 12:26 → ORD 14:08AA 3921 · flown by Envoy	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 17:02 → DCA 20:16AA 489	7h 50m	98%	75%
American Details →	MHT 11:11 → CLT 13:37AA 5661 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 16:42 → DCA 18:23AA 2002	7h 12m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MHT 18:03 → ORD 19:48AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	59m Chicago	ORD 20:47 → DCA 23:51AA 535	5h 48m	74%	56%
American Details →	MHT 12:26 → ORD 14:08AA 3921 · flown by Envoy	47m Chicago	ORD 14:55 → DCA 17:59AA 2769	5h 33m	56%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON