tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3027 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3027 Southwest MHT 06:41 MCO 10:01 7% 2% 4.6% no record
WN 3028 Southwest MHT 16:41 MCO 20:01 19% 7% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MHT 09:25 → IAD 11:19UA 4857 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 16m Dulles IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206 5h 33m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:35 → PHL 09:14AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont 3h 43m Philadelphia PHL 12:57 → MCO 15:36AA 3153 8h 01m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → MHT 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 5160 · flown by PSA 3h 12m Washington DCA 11:02 → MCO 13:37AA 1153 7h 37m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MHT 10:32 → PHL 12:09AA 5976 · flown by Piedmont 2h 02m Philadelphia PHL 14:11 → MCO 16:54AA 2502 6h 22m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → MHT 14:54 → PHL 16:35AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont 3h 41m Philadelphia PHL 20:16 → MCO 23:08AA 1673 8h 14m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:04 → ORD 09:00AA 4150 · flown by Envoy 1h 32m Chicago ORD 10:32 → MCO 14:21AA 3293 7h 17m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → MHT 19:37 → IAD 21:35UA 4829 · flown by CommuteAir 58m Dulles IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 +1UA 689 5h 24m 75% 61%
AmericanDetails → MHT 11:11 → CLT 13:37AA 5661 · flown by PSA 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 16:47 → MCO 18:34AA 1682 7h 23m 100% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MHT 14:37 → IAD 16:35UA 4925 · flown by CommuteAir 47m Dulles IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463 5h 08m 65% 47%
AmericanDetails → MHT 12:26 → ORD 14:08AA 3921 · flown by Envoy 58m Chicago ORD 15:06 → MCO 19:00AA 1247 6h 34m 72% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON