Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 1249 MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1368 MIA 15:57 → ATL 17:56 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1249 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:00	ATL 08:02	11%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1211 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	ATL 09:05	11%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 1261 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:20	ATL 10:20	13%	5%	0.7%	93%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	MIA 10:37	ATL 12:45	21%	5%	0.7%	85%
CX 3272 Cathay Pacific	MIA 08:54	ATL 10:57	22%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	MIA 12:10	ATL 14:20	26%	7%	0.9%	82%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	MIA 08:03	ATL 10:03	28%	8%	0.8%	80%
F9 2483 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:39	ATL 13:59	28%	10%	1.1%	82%worse than usual
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	MIA 14:12	ATL 16:16	31%	10%	1.0%	75%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:00	ATL 20:16	34%	13%	2.1%	59%
F9 2271 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:41	ATL 23:52	36%	12%	1.2%	79%worse than usual
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:39	ATL 18:45	37%	13%	2.4%	59%
AA 1400 American	MIA 21:42	ATL 23:48	42%	12%	1.0%	no record
AA 3261 American Flight history →	MIA 20:58	ATL 23:01	47%	15%	1.1%	63%worse than usual
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 20:04	ATL 22:09	49%	17%	1.9%	57%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	MIA 15:57	ATL 17:56	50%	18%	2.2%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON