Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 812 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 812 MIA 09:25 → AUS 11:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2324 MIA 15:18 → AUS 17:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 812 American Flight history →	MIA 09:25	AUS 11:27	17%	5%	0.8%	90%
DL 2344 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:05	AUS 21:13	27%	9%	0.9%	68%
WN 2731 Southwest	MIA 12:34	AUS 14:44	29%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2629 American Flight history →	MIA 19:40	AUS 21:45	32%	10%	1.5%	73%
AA 2324 American Flight history →	MIA 15:18	AUS 17:19	33%	10%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON