Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3351 at 21:45, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3351 Envoy	MIA 21:45	AVL 23:45	23%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182	6h 16m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:00 → LGA 09:57DL 2387	1h 59m New York	LGA 11:56 → AVL 14:06DL 1812	7h 06m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:04 → AVL 11:09DL 3059	5h 09m	96%	80%
American Details →	MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205	2h 16m New York	LGA 12:15 → AVL 14:25AA 4418 · flown by Republic	7h 29m	96%	80%
American Details →	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → AVL 15:08AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 48m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → AVL 22:32DL 3116	5h 53m	96%	73%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 19:43 → AVL 20:43AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	7h 13m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037	6h 40m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → AVL 22:32DL 3116	4h 32m	74%	57%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037	4h 13m	63%	47%
American Details →	MIA 16:45 → DFW 19:04AA 3259	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → AVL 23:28AA 3267	6h 43m	73%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON