tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1272 at 20:44, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1272 American Flight history → MIA 20:44 BDL 23:55 28% 9% 0.9% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491 2h 59m Washington DCA 11:59 → BDL 13:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA 7h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → BDL 15:14DL 2739 8h 09m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 12:13 → BDL 14:19AA 2741 8h 04m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BDL 18:50DL 2735 8h 13m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:12 → BDL 11:34DL 1082 5h 34m 91% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 7h 15m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BDL 21:54DL 2504 7h 42m 95% 72%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 18:42 → BDL 20:51AA 3280 7h 21m 96% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 5h 54m 74% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON