Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3427 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 22:56	BHM 23:59	16%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:52	BHM 14:59	25%	5%	2.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012	6h 05m	98%	83%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:48 → BHM 11:54AA 5530 · flown by PSA	7h 29m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → BHM 15:52DL 2484	6h 15m	97%	78%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:57 → BHM 14:49AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	6h 49m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044	5h 49m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → BHM 22:34DL 2034	6h 55m	98%	75%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:20AA 3055	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:50 → BHM 16:53AA 5610 · flown by PSA	6h 53m	94%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004	46m Charlotte	CLT 09:07 → BHM 09:47AA 5043 · flown by PSA	4h 32m	69%	58%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	4h 19m	75%	57%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	47m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012	3h 48m	66%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON