Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3033 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3033 MIA 06:36 → BNA 07:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 487 MIA 14:31 → BNA 16:05 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3033 Southwest	MIA 06:36	BNA 07:58	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4123 Envoy	MIA 08:22	BNA 09:49	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2833 American Flight history →	MIA 21:00	BNA 22:24	32%	10%	0.9%	65%
WN 4805 Southwest	MIA 15:29	BNA 16:58	34%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 323 American Flight history →	MIA 16:22	BNA 17:52	35%	11%	1.0%	67%
AA 487 American	MIA 14:31	BNA 16:05	36%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON