Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2226 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2226 MIA 06:53 → BOS 10:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1074 MIA 18:20 → BOS 21:45 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2226 American	MIA 06:53	BOS 10:21	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 4599 Republic	MIA 09:59	BOS 13:36	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:44	BOS 15:17	21%	7%	0.7%	74%
AA 613 American	MIA 20:39	BOS 00:04	29%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 1054 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	BOS 00:59	32%	9%	0.8%	60%
DL 1753 Delta	MIA 18:39	BOS 22:00	33%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 2143 American	MIA 14:03	BOS 17:32	35%	12%	1.0%	no record
AA 1074 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	BOS 21:45	41%	14%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON