tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 15m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 8h 11m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 9h 56m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 17m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 9h 24m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:33 → DFW 17:43AA 1824 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 9h 25m 96% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 46m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 7h 55m 55% 42%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36AA 2828 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 21m 62% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON