Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4703 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4703 MIA 06:05 → BWI 08:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3216 MIA 18:51 → BWI 21:37 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4703 Southwest	MIA 06:05	BWI 08:44	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:23	BWI 10:20	15%	7%	1.2%	71%
WN 4381 Southwest	MIA 11:34	BWI 14:10	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2104 American	MIA 15:59	BWI 18:39	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 3526 Southwest	MIA 17:04	BWI 19:45	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 18:51	BWI 21:37	35%	12%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON