Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 3867 Envoy	MIA 15:51	CHS 17:39	23%	6%	2.0%	no record
AA 2948 American Flight history →	MIA 22:16	CHS 23:59	33%	9%	5.1%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:43DL 2179	6h 38m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → CHS 11:54DL 3107	5h 54m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 16:00 → CHS 17:19DL 2174	6h 42m	97%	81%
American Details →	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → CHS 13:48AA 5222 · flown by PSA	5h 28m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:44 → CHS 18:59DL 3179	6h 49m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CHS 23:53DL 2850	7h 14m	98%	74%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 33m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CHS 16:02UA 6295 · flown by Mesa	7h 14m	94%	74%
United Details →	MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864	1h 35m Newark	EWR 11:46 → CHS 13:59UA 1760	6h 52m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:03 → CHS 15:48AA 2166	6h 48m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON