Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3004 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3004 MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3194 MIA 17:23 → CLT 19:30 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3004 American Flight history →	MIA 06:15	CLT 08:21	12%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 361 American Flight history →	MIA 08:20	CLT 10:20	18%	5%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AA 1965 American	MIA 08:54	CLT 10:58	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1398 American	MIA 10:04	CLT 12:09	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2231 American	MIA 21:27	CLT 23:34	26%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 3037 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:53	CLT 17:12	30%	11%	2.7%	72%
AA 2297 American Flight history →	MIA 13:30	CLT 15:48	31%	11%	2.1%	78%
AA 985 American Flight history →	MIA 16:01	CLT 18:22	33%	11%	1.1%	66%
AA 3194 American	MIA 17:23	CLT 19:30	38%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON