tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3540 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 14:17 CMH 17:03 20% 5% 1.0% 77%
AA 3616 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 20:35 CMH 23:14 24% 5% 0.7% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 10:00 → DCA 12:49AA 1612 3h 05m Washington DCA 15:54 → CMH 17:33AA 4398 · flown by Republic 7h 33m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 01m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 7h 24m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:38 → JFK 11:34AA 2341 3h 10m New York JFK 14:44 → CMH 16:45AA 4767 · flown by Republic 8h 07m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 6h 33m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491 1h 04m Washington DCA 10:04 → CMH 11:46AA 4700 · flown by Republic 5h 27m 93% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 11:29 → LGA 14:26DL 2339 2h 56m New York LGA 17:22 → CMH 19:21DL 5671 · flown by Republic 7h 52m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 33m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 7h 17m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004 2h 16m Charlotte CLT 10:37 → CMH 12:04AA 2180 5h 49m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 17:01 → JFK 20:16DL 1514 59m New York JFK 21:15 → CMH 23:31DL 5658 · flown by Republic 6h 30m 68% 57%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 1h 01m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CMH 23:32AA 4445 · flown by Republic 6h 32m 62% 53%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 57% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON