Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3846 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3846 MIA 08:47 → CVG 11:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3472 MIA 18:32 → CVG 21:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3846 Envoy	MIA 08:47	CVG 11:35	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4115 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:45	CVG 22:35	19%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 3472 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 18:32	CVG 21:16	25%	6%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON