Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 491 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 491 MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:19	DCA 09:00	9%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:03	DCA 10:46	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	16%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 10:00	DCA 12:49	17%	6%	0.8%	85%
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:09	DCA 14:57	22%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:19	DCA 22:11	23%	9%	1.2%	63%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	23%	7%	1.1%	76%
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:36	DCA 18:20	23%	9%	1.2%	58%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:53	DCA 16:39	23%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:21	DCA 22:59	25%	8%	1.1%	74%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	31%	10%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON