Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1226 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1226 MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2828 MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1226 American Flight history →	MIA 05:25	DFW 07:40	14%	3%	1.2%	91%
AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:05	DFW 09:24	15%	4%	1.1%	85%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	19%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 893 American	MIA 09:33	DFW 11:40	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:20	25%	8%	1.1%	74%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 15:07	DFW 17:29	29%	12%	2.2%	77%
AA 1287 American Flight history →	MIA 12:18	DFW 14:26	30%	11%	1.3%	70%
AA 1679 American Flight history →	MIA 21:28	DFW 23:38	36%	11%	3.9%	74%
AA 2183 American	MIA 14:03	DFW 16:03	36%	11%	2.1%	no record
AA 1824 American Flight history →	MIA 15:33	DFW 17:43	37%	14%	2.1%	63%
AA 3259 American Flight history →	MIA 16:45	DFW 19:04	38%	13%	2.1%	73%worse than usual
AA 2289 American	MIA 19:38	DFW 21:45	39%	18%	5.6%	no record
AA 2828 American Flight history →	MIA 17:37	DFW 19:36	44%	13%	2.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON