Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1864 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1864 MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2933 MIA 14:31 → EWR 17:34 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1864 United Flight history →	MIA 07:07	EWR 10:11	9%	4%	0.9%	93%
UA 408 United Flight history →	MIA 08:47	EWR 11:53	14%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	MIA 08:32	EWR 11:35	17%	5%	1.2%	93%
UA 2433 United Flight history →	MIA 11:25	EWR 14:22	26%	10%	1.2%	94%worse than usual
UA 2029 United Flight history →	MIA 20:40	EWR 23:59	30%	11%	1.0%	72%
AA 2008 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	EWR 00:59	35%	10%	1.2%	62%
UA 1102 United	MIA 13:29	EWR 16:34	38%	15%	1.5%	no record
AA 322 American Flight history →	MIA 19:45	EWR 22:53	39%	14%	1.3%	46%
AA 2933 American Flight history →	MIA 14:31	EWR 17:34	44%	17%	1.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON