Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3827 MIA 09:00 → EYW 10:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3577 MIA 12:25 → EYW 13:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3827 Envoy	MIA 09:00	EYW 10:04	14%	3%	5.4%	no record
MQ 3438 Envoy	MIA 18:26	EYW 19:30	18%	4%	2.0%	no record
YX 4677 Republic	MIA 10:04	EYW 11:11	20%	3%	2.5%	no record
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 12:25	EYW 13:30	23%	4%	5.0%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON