Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3754 at 20:50, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3754 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:50	GSO 23:07	20%	5%	1.1%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → GSO 14:13DL 3060	7h 08m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	7h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 02m Detroit	DTW 19:55 → GSO 21:50DL 5407 · flown by Endeavor	8h 12m	98%	86%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → GSO 14:12AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	8h 47m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:46 → GSO 18:06DL 3050	5h 56m	96%	82%
United Details →	MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864	2h 00m Newark	EWR 12:11 → GSO 14:05UA 4509 · flown by GoJet	6h 58m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 11:29 → LGA 14:26DL 2339	2h 01m New York	LGA 16:27 → GSO 18:04DL 5107 · flown by Endeavor	6h 35m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	7h 20m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON