Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3435 at 21:51, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3435 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:51	GSP 23:53	18%	5%	1.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → GSP 12:18DL 1725	6h 18m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → GSP 15:01DL 3010	6h 41m	98%	87%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:41 → GSP 13:09AA 3986 · flown by Envoy	7h 44m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → GSP 17:53DL 3095	5h 43m	97%	83%
American Details →	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → GSP 14:07AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont	5h 47m	95%	81%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	2h 22m Philadelphia	PHL 12:00 → GSP 14:04AA 6132 · flown by Piedmont	7h 19m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → GSP 23:54DL 2281	5h 54m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 19:42 → GSP 20:43DL 3136	6h 31m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	54m Houston	IAH 19:50 → GSP 23:19UA 4033 · flown by Mesa	6h 26m	72%	57%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	57m Atlanta	ATL 19:42 → GSP 20:43DL 3136	4h 04m	63%	49%
American Details →	MIA 16:45 → DFW 19:04AA 3259	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:50 → GSP 23:16AA 2992	6h 31m	39%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON