Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2517 at 17:24, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2517 Southwest	MIA 17:24	HOU 19:12	39%	12%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 45m	95%	75%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	6h 06m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:39 → ATL 18:45DL 1323	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 12m	89%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510	52m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 12m	65%	51%
American Details →	MIA 15:33 → DFW 17:43AA 1824	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	59%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON