tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2435 at 13:10, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → MIA 13:10 IAD 15:53 19% 7% 1.0% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:05 → ATL 09:05DL 1211 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 7h 21m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → IAD 14:26AA 524 9h 01m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 2h 52m Newark EWR 13:03 → IAD 14:32UA 3906 7h 25m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695 6h 37m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:03 → IAD 16:14UA 3904 7h 26m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:16DL 1332 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 6h 11m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:16DL 1386 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 41m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470 2h 12m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 8h 17m 92% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 55m Chicago ORD 19:48 → IAD 22:33UA 304 6h 23m 57% 42%
FrontierDetails → MIA 11:39 → ATL 13:59F9 2483 47m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → IAD 16:34F9 4410 4h 55m 47% 32%
UnitedDetails → MIA 11:25 → EWR 14:22UA 2433 50m Newark EWR 15:12 → IAD 16:39UA 2301 5h 14m 39% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON