Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 1067 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day F9 1067 MIA 07:53 → IAH 10:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 678 MIA 14:13 → IAH 16:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:53	IAH 10:00	13%	6%	1.0%	85%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	14%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 1347 American	MIA 08:09	IAH 09:59	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	22%	8%	0.9%	87%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	23%	11%	0.9%	74%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:13	IAH 22:05	30%	12%	0.9%	70%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:13	IAH 16:03	31%	13%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON